Friday, January 27, 2006

Condi's advantage

On Wednesday Jonathon Beale wrote about Condoleeza Rice and the movement to draft her into running for the presidency in 2008. The (unlabelled) opinion piece was, for the most part, reasonable, but I do question some of Beale's political judgments. At one point he writes of Rice:
And then there are the more obvious disadvantages. There has never been a single black woman president in the history of the United States.
It's not at all obvious to me that this is a disadvantage. Indeed, it seems to me to be a rather signifcant factor in her favor. Particularly the fact that she is black. The Democrats hold a virtual monopoly on black votes, which is one of the only things that keeps them competitive. In 2004 Bush managed to get just 11% of all the votes cast by black people, yet still he was able to win the election.

It seems to me that, of all people, Condi Rice stands the greatest chance of actually breaking this monopoly which, if done, would virtually ensure the defeat of whatever candidate the Democrats put up.

That said, Beale is probably correct in betting against Condi running.

7 Comments:

Anonymous Mid-Atlantic said...

Scott
It's a really interesting topic, and with the increasing profile of people like Ken Blackwell in Ohio and others we're starting to see a rise in publicly visible black conservatives. After all, for the last 6 years we've had a black Secretary of State over there. I think you're probably right that she won't run though, which I reckon is a shame. It really would emphasise the truth behind the fact that it's the party of Lincoln.
Oh, and by the way, you never notice much coverage of Sen Byrd's previous affiliations... Would that be because he's on the Democratic side of the aisle?

8:34 AM  
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10:02 AM  
Blogger Simon Lazarus said...

A new polls shows that Hillary Clinton garners just 16% of the people if she runs for President - 51% say that they "definitely" will not vote for her, and 60% of men say they will not vote for her.

These are shocking numbers. If the Dems do rush forward and nominate Mrs. Clinton, it appears that they wish to forgo controlling the White House until at least 2013 at the earliest.

7:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

More to the point: which side is Diebold on ?

7:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So are you saying that Blacks will vote against their interests because Condi is black ?
I think they are cleverer than that.

9:19 PM  
Blogger Scott Callahan said...

Anon,

Surely you are not so naive as to think identity politics is not relevevant.

I am saying that since blacks already vote almost unanimously for democrats (against their interests, BTW), there is only upside for a republican candidate who is herself black. All it takes is some small but significant percentage of blacks to either a) vote for her because she is black or b) avoid the polls so as not to be seen voting against another black and it will have a devastating impact on the democrats, who simply cannot win without its near monopoly on black votes.

SC

10:08 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Identity politics.

Would a black candidate lose more white, hispanic (whatever) votes than it gains in black votes?

10:52 PM  

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